Investment policy · research
IPS thesis: AI-bubble hedge.
Product story for a rules-based equity-hedge desk — not advice, not an offering.
We treat the present AI equity run as a late-cycle bubble candidate in the spirit of Shiller’s exuberance work — not as a permanent productivity plateau. The FO desk is designed so a household (and later, potentially accredited clients) is less exposed to a melt-up that breaks the way 2000–02 did.
Publishable pillars
1. Rhyme, not prophecy
AI boom may rhyme with dot-com. Public research explores analog clocks and counter-metrics — including an illustrative window where material US equity drawdown is a live risk to size against. Not a timed prediction or guarantee.
2. Liquidity & policy
Easy conditions can extend bubbles; policy turns matter for when hedges pay. Bond supply/demand and post-stress QE / printing dynamics are research companions to the equity thesis — both sides argued in the open.
3. Explicit risk budgets
Written expected-utility / share-of-wealth style sizing over vibes. Rules-based book that can run without daily heroics — success defined as low equity beta and path survival, not melt-up outperformance.
4. Separate lanes
Personal books, FO asset-management product, and the data-vendor lane that feeds the desk stay separate by design. Capital preservation posture over naive compounding theater.
AI Bubble Tracker
Public research surface mapping today’s AI boom against prior tech bubbles (especially 1995–2002) with shared clocks, proxies, and falsifiable tests — arguing both sides. It is a research instrument for the FO hedge product, not a retail tip sheet.
Live now: aibubbleoracle.com — Then & Now analog clock, metrics vs. the dot-com episode, and ongoing updates from the Markets Analyst seat.